A performance marketing strategy that delivers an ROI

In hurry? Here are the three main takeaways from our blog on creating a performance marketing strategy that delivers an ROI.

1. Stop chasing ROI as a single attribution number. Prove causality (incrementality) instead: Attribution often over-credits first/last click in messy, multi-touch journeys. True performance means incremental lift vs a baseline (using holdouts/control groups), so ROI is defensible to finance.

2. Move measurement from proxies (clicks/impressions) to verified commercial outcomes via closed-loop measurement: To make ROI credible, connect marketing exposure to real transactions (closed-loop), so reporting reflects actual buying behaviour, not easy-to-track signals.

3. Lean into channels built for transaction-based proof, especially commerce media and card-linked offers: As cookies decline and measurement fragments, budget is shifting toward environments that use first-party and transaction data. Card-linked offers are a friction-light and naturally measurable, helping teams optimise toward what actually drove incremental revenue/transactions.

Got time to stick around? Let's dive a litter deeper.

A performance marketing strategy that delivers ROI (without falling into the ROI trap)

Performance marketing used to be simple. Spend money. Drive clicks. Hope they convert. That model no longer works. Customer journeys are fragmented. Attention is expensive. First‑party data is under pressure. Finance teams want proof, not promises. Merchants need marketing activity they can measure to the pound and optimise in real time. Which means performance marketing has to evolve, shifting from media spend to measurable commercial outcomes. From reach to revenue. From impressions to impact. This guide explains how to build a performance marketing strategy that delivers ROI, and why commerce media and card‑linked offers are becoming essential tools for marketeers who want growth they can evidence.

Performance marketing has always promised accountability. Spend goes in. Revenue comes out. The story sounds simple.

Reality is messier.

Customer journeys are rarely linear, which makes attribution difficult. That is one of the core reasons marketers fall into what Forbes calls the “ROI trap” — misattributing conversions, over‑weighting short‑term signals, and under‑valuing activity that influences outcomes earlier in the journey (Forbes).

The pressure has only intensified. Nielsen’s 2024 Annual Marketing Report found that 84% of marketers are confident in their ROI measurement, yet only 38% measure holistic ROI across traditional and digital channels. Confidence is rising faster than measurement maturity.

Performance marketing needs a reset.

This blog explains how marketers on the merchant and retail sector can build a performance marketing strategy that delivers ROI and stands up to scrutiny, using transaction‑based measurement, commerce media, and card‑linked offers as practical ways to prove what moved the needle.

Why ROI feels harder to prove than it should

There are several reasons ROI can be hard to prove, including outdated attribution models and fragmented measurement systems.

Attribution is built for a world that no longer exists

Forbes makes the point plainly: customers interact with multiple touchpoints such as content, email, paid, and referrals before buying. First‑touch and last‑touch models flatten that complexity and can lead to the wrong budget allocation decisions.

That creates a familiar pattern:

Last click looks like the hero.
Everything else looks like a cost.
ROI becomes a debate, not a number.

Marketers are confident, yet measurement is still fragmented

Nielsen’s 2024 research highlights the gap. Marketers say long‑term and full‑funnel ROI matter, yet many still prioritise performance activity over brand building. The same report shows the practical challenge: few teams evaluate marketing holistically across channels.

When measurement is fragmented, optimisation becomes skewed toward what is easiest to track rather than what is most effective.

Signal loss is real, and preparedness is uneven

Privacy and platform changes have shifted the measurement landscape. Adobe’s research (surveying 2,841 marketers across multiple markets, including the UK) found:

49% say their marketing strategy still depends on third‑party cookie data (down from 75% in 2022)
60% feel “mostly” or “very” prepared for cookie deprecation (down from 78% in 2022)
More than 1 in 3 say cookie deprecation has negatively impacted their ability to track, target, and measure engagement

We're not referring to a temporary wobble. It's a structural change.

What true performance looks like now

To measure true performance, you need to explore results, capturing all touchpoints holistically.

Performance means causality, not just credit

Attribution tells you where conversions happened. Incrementality tells you whether marketing caused the change.

Skai summarises the distinction clearly and uses Nielsen’s own 2024 stat to reinforce why this matters: marketers say they are confident, yet many do not measure cross‑media ROI. Incrementality helps isolate what happened because the activity ran, versus what would have happened anyway.

Standard measurements finance teams recognise include:

Clear baselines
Control groups or holdouts
Incremental lift
Cost per incremental outcome

That is what makes ROI defensible.

Closed‑loop measurement is the practical route to credibility

Closed‑loop measurement connects exposure to verified outcomes. It reduces reliance on proxies (clicks, impressions) and anchors reporting in real commercial behaviour.

That is the positioning behind A Complete Guide to Commerce Media Using Discount Platforms and Card-Linked Offers: commerce media “closes the gap between marketing spend and real revenue” by linking campaigns to verified transactions and reporting on incremental spend and repeat purchase behaviour.

Commerce media: the performance layer built on transaction outcomes

Commerce media is growing because it fits the new rules: first‑party data, measurable outcomes, and omnichannel influence.

McKinsey defines commerce media networks as ecosystems that integrate ads into customer experiences across online and offline channels, often using first‑party transaction and loyalty data. McKinsey expects commerce media to grow at a CAGR of more than 21% from 2023 to 2027.

The point for marketeers in the retail space is simple:

Spend is moving toward measurable commerce environments.
Networks that can prove outcomes will win budget.
Merchants who can evidence incrementality will protect spend in tougher trading conditions.

Growth of card‑linked programmes

A broader shift toward transaction‑based marketing is driving growth in card‑linked programmes.

As third‑party cookies decline and attribution becomes less reliable, merchants are increasingly prioritising channels that connect spend directly to outcomes. Card‑linked programmes sit at the intersection of payments, rewards, and marketing, which makes them particularly attractive in performance environments.

This growth is not limited to a single provider or geography. Banks, fintechs, employee benefit platforms, and loyalty programmes are all investing in card‑linked capabilities to deliver value to users while providing merchants with measurable results.

What connects these use cases is not the channel itself, but the measurement logic. Spend happens first. Rewards follow. You can measure performance against verified transactions rather than assumptions.

How to build a performance marketing strategy that delivers ROI

Here's a practical framework you can use to move from campaign reporting to commercial reporting.

1. Set ROI goals in commercial terms

Start with outcomes that match how the business runs:

Incremental revenue, not total revenue
Incremental transactions, not clicks
Frequency uplift, not reach
Basket uplift, not impressions

If you can't defend a metric in a trading meeting, it will not survive budget scrutiny.

2. Choose channels that can prove outcomes

Forbes highlights how easy it is to over‑credit a single touchpoint when customers interact with multiple channels. A better approach is to design measurement around the journey rather than one moment.

Commerce media and card‑linked offers are useful here because they anchor measurement to transactions, reducing ambiguity. McKinsey describes this shift toward transaction‑informed ecosystems as a defining feature of commerce media networks.

3. Build measurement into campaign design

Incrementality is not a post‑campaign add‑on. It is a design choice.

Use:

Holdout groups (control audiences not exposed to the activity)
Matched market testing where appropriate
Clear baselines and time windows

Incrementality matters when privacy constraints reduce the completeness of user‑level tracking.

4. Reduce friction to improve redemption and accuracy

Card‑linked offers are structurally friction‑light. They trigger value through the transaction, which improves usability and measurement.

PYMNTS’ finding that 93% plan to maintain or increase usage after the first offer points to what frictionless mechanics enable: repeat behaviour.

5. Optimise toward incrementality, not convenience

Forbes warns that narrow attribution can lead teams to overinvest in channels that “seem” to perform well while undervaluing those that contributed earlier in the journey.

Commerce media measurement helps here. When you can see verified transaction outcomes, optimisation moves from assumptions to evidence.

Which KPIs matter most for merchants and retailers

A strong ROI model balances outcome metrics and efficiency metrics.

Outcome KPIs

Incremental revenue (uplift vs baseline)
Incremental transactions
New vs returning customers (where available)
Repeat purchase behaviour

Efficiency KPIs

Cost per incremental transaction
Cost per incremental customer acquired
ROI based on incremental outcomes, not total sales

Commerce media and card‑linked metrics to include

Your existing commerce media positioning references Average Transaction Frequency (ATF) and Average Transaction Value (ATV) as reportable outcomes in card‑linked environments. Those are useful because they connect campaigns to behavioural change, not just one‑off redemptions.

Common ROI mistakes marketeers can avoid

There are three common ROI mistakes to avoid: treating ROI as one number, mistaking confidence for capability, and depending are weakening signals.

Mistake 1: Treating ROI as one number

Forbes describes the ROI trap as a mix of misattribution, short‑term bias, and difficulty quantifying longer‑term impact. A single number often hides what is actually happening.

Mistake 2: Mistaking confidence for capability

Nielsen shows ROI confidence is high, yet holistic measurement remains limited. That is a warning sign for any strategy built on siloed reporting.

Mistake 3: Depending on signals that are weakening

Adobe’s research shows that reliance on cookies is falling, yet preparedness has also dropped. That combination creates a risk of measurement degradation if teams do not build stronger first‑party and transaction‑based approaches.

The shift marketeers should make now

It’s time to make a shift, removing friction and measuring verified outcomes. The performance marketing standard is moving:

From attribution debates to incrementality proof
From clicks to verified outcomes
From channel reporting to commercial reporting
From fragmented data to closed‑loop measurement

Commerce media is growing at pace because it aligns with that direction. Card‑linked offers are scaling because they remove friction and are naturally measurable. That is what a modern ROI‑led strategy looks like.

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FAQs

Why do marketers struggle to measure ROI accurately?

Marketers often struggle to measure ROI accurately because customer journeys are multi‑touch and attribution models often over‑credit the first or last interaction, which creates an incomplete view of what drove the sale.

What is incrementality in marketing?

Incrementality measures the causal impact of marketing by comparing outcomes between exposed and non‑exposed audiences to isolate true lift.

What is commerce media?

Commerce media uses first‑party commerce and transaction signals to activate marketing and measure outcomes based on real sales rather than proxy metrics.

How do card‑linked offers improve ROI measurement?

They link rewards to verified transactions, reducing redemption friction and improving the reliability of campaign reporting.

What proof exists that card‑linked offers drive repeat usage?

PYMNTS reports 93% of cardholders plan to maintain or increase usage after their first card‑linked offer.

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